Understanding climate changes on a global and regional scale
New knowledge on the forces and influences that will impact the climate in the future
“We are working on a time-series of environmental and climatic change with ever-increasing temporal resolution, along with correlation lines that are precise enough to permit global synoptic reconstruction … it will give us increased confidence in our ability to forecast climatic change during the next century. Hence, far from only being of academic interest, long-term planning of energy-based economies indirectly depends upon it”
Sir Nicholas Shackleton (1937-2006)
Monitoring climate change on the Iberian margin
Ecosystem consequences of not limiting global warming
Our main goal in the IBCC-Shack project is to monitor the factors that force, amplify, sustain, and globalise climate change during “deglaciations” on the Iberian margin. These include transitions at warming and cooling, brought about by the internal atmospheric-oceanic circulation system, not only for long-term trends (century-scale) but specifically for medium and short-term related anomalies (multi-decadal scale). Evaluating data from the Balearic basin and the Tagus basin, we will provide knowledge to understand the mechanisms of response to climate change in the Mediterranean region.
The IBCC-Shack
work plan
Two MILESTONES, three DELIVERABLES and seven TASKS mark the steps to achieve our project goals
Milestones
Two steps to a novel approach
We will test and apply innovative analysis, such as MSI, and IR-hyperspectral spectrometry, to the Iberian paleoarchive for improving its continuity. This approach will facilitate instrumental and paleorecords intercomparison over the current “deglaciation”. By targeting periods when both overlap, similar “deglaciations” in the past, can be understood in detail.
We will achieve a temporal resolution to date only recorded by ice cores obtained in the polar regions that will allow us to directly evaluate the imprint of climate modes in the Iberian paleoarchive strata. This will imply a re-evaluation of established paradigms and scientific methodologies in terms of analyses. This will allow us to disentangle the processes involved in the natural storage and dynamics of carbon by changes in atmosphere-sea processes, with direct application in the monitoring of hotspot areas and climate model simulations at a quasi-real time.
Deliverables
To cover the gaps in our knowledge
Setting a long‐term operational C accumulation monitoring system that uses the existing sampling sites and connects them with the IB paleoarchive.
Providing metrics that robustly show the connection between the Med circulation and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (involving MO, WMDW, NADW, AABW water mases and modes), its functioning and collapses, within IB archives and further compared with an ensemble of models.
Extrapolating decadal prediction systems to bridge seasonal/annual weather-climate to climate extremes.
Tasks
01
Data and design using ultra-high resolution
02
Chronostratigraphic analysis
By studying different “deglaciation” periods sharing similarities with proportions to the current non-canonical “deglaciation” we will search for clues to transitional processes. In this WP we will analyse:
- post-industrial period dating: 210Pb dates
- Post-industrial complementary chrono-markers: documentary, Zn, earthquake hiatus, volcanic ash layers
- Pre-industrial period dating: AMS 14C (foraminifera)
- Pre-industrial complementary chrono-markers: earthquake hiatus, volcanic ash layers for instrumental-documentary comparison
03
Facies analyses: elements, in/organic C (foraminifera), dissolution
The aim of this WP is the description and classification of sediments. We will work with the bulk sediment samples, pre-treating the materials, identifying the foraminifera present and performing census counts. The bulk sediment samples will also be prepared for foraminifera picking required for 14C dating, O&C stable isotopes and foraminifera planktonic and benthic associations. Carbon organic and inorganic will be analysed, the elemental composition of the samples described, and imaging and mineralogy of core sediments will be performed by non-destructive scan analysis. High-resolution characterization of the sediment core and detection of key layers for chronostratigraphy will also be performed.
04
Organic molecule analysis (coccolithophora, vascular plants)
For the analysis of organic molecules, in this WP we will gather details of coccolithophore associations and integrated production in particulate and coretop sediments and sync these data with instrumental observations and sediment traps ongoing in the Balearic and Tagus basins.
05
Statistical interpretation and modelling
We will evaluate the carbon cycle and weather-climate modelling to identify key atmosphere-ocean parameters for downscaling carbon fluxes, uptake-storage vs temperature and hydrological data, and determination of climate mode variability prone to IBCC-Shack uptake and its impact on climate and climate change scenario simulations.
06
Publication_ synopsis-synthesis and data archive
This WP will gather all the knowledge produced within the project in the form of publications, congress abstracts, reports and other dissemination platforms, data archives and materials produced for other dissemination platforms.
07
Communication and Dissemination (Transference to Society)
This WP facilitates the interaction with stakeholders and policymakers, as well as the dissemination of project objectives and results to a wider audience. In this WP we will organise three outreach activities throughout the duration of the project. The target audience will be children in pre-and primary school. In these outreach activities, researchers will explain project objectives and results to the children using an analogy with the computer-animated movie Cars.
IPCC, 2021. https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/
MedECC. First Med Assessment Report, 2020. https://www.medecc.org/
